Fig. 2

Graphical representation of variation in extinction (E_it) and colonization (C_it) probabilities as a function of patch age (i.e. time since creation) for virtual species with different successional habitat affinities (subscript i stands for patch i and subscript t stands for temporal). For the extinction probability: a early-successional: \({\text{E}}_{\text{it}} = \frac{1}{{1 + \exp \left( { - 0.09 \times {\text{patch age}}} \right)}}\); b mid-successional: for \({\text{patch}}\;{\text{age}} < 50, {\text{E}}_{\text{it}} = \exp \left( {0.08 \times \left( { - {\text{patch}}\;{\text{age}}} \right)} \right)\) and for \({\text{patch}} {\text{age}} \ge 50, {\text{E}}_{\text{it}} = \exp \left( {0.08 \times \left( {{\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)} \right)\); c late-successional: \({\text{E}}_{\text{it}} = \frac{1}{{1 + \exp \left( {0.09 \times {\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)}}\). For the colonization probability: d early-successional: \({\text{C}}_{\text{it}} = \frac{1}{{1 + \exp \left( {0.09 \times {\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)}}\); e mid-successional: for \({\text{patch}} {\text{age}} < 50, {\text{C}}_{\text{it}} = - \exp \left( {0.08 \times \left( { - {\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)} \right)\) and for \({\text{patch}} {\text{age}} \ge 50, {\text{C}}_{\text{it}} = - \exp \left( {0.08 \times \left( {{\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)} \right)\); f late-successional: \({\text{C}}_{\text{it}} = \frac{1}{{1 + \exp \left( { - 0.09 \times {\text{patch}} {\text{age}}} \right)}}\)