Fig. 2

Surviving fractions of Branchipodopsis wolfi eggs were determined during an 8 month laboratory experiment under three different temperature treatments; a present-day cycle (Present), a future cycle (Future) and constant 18 °C (18 °C). Both cycles represent daily temperature fluctuations that were calculated based on the average temperature for each hour of the day, with separate values calculated for each month of the year. When survival parameters of old and young eggs are set to the average values measured over the four time points under the expected future temperature treatment, matrix population models indicate that a the median hydroperiod required for positive population growth increases and that also b the extinction risk of populations in pools with a certain median hydroperiod increases. The grey bands represent standard errors of population growth rate estimates