American foulbrood in a honeybee colony: spore-symptom relationship and feedbacks between disease and colony development

Table 2 Posterior distributions for the main parameters on original scale

Response	Parameter	Posterior distribution	P[effect > 0]
Symptoms	Intercept	0.29 ± 0.06 (0.16, 0.43)	100
	Spores	2.13 ± 0.33 (1.47, 2.91)	100
	Time	1.58 ± 0.15 (1.26, 1.91)	100
	Brood	1.61 ± 0.19 (1.28, 2.10)	100
	Spores-Brood	0.51 ± 0.40 (− 0.26, 1.45)	91.3
	Brood-Time	0.03 ± 0.22 (− 0.46, 0.52)	55.6
	Spores-Time	0.55 ± 0.39 (− 0.24, 1.4)	94.3
	Spores = 0	0.22 ± 0.05 (0.12, 0.34)	100
Spores	Intercept	286.08 ± 65.68 (159.83, 432.0)	100
	Symptoms	3.51 ± 0.68 (2.20, 5.06)	100
	Time	0.63 ± 0.08 (0.46, 0.81)	100
	Bees	1.08 ± 0.15 (0.78, 1.46)	100
	Symptoms-Bees	2.43 ± 0.74 (0.97, 4.17)	100
	Bee-time	0.45 ± 0.19 (0.04, 0.87)	99.5
	Symptoms-Time	2.88 ± 0.71 (1.57, 4.49)	100
	Symptoms = 0	158.26 ± 36.58 (92.63, 241.76)	100
	Symptoms = 1	228.13 ± 53.04 (123.54, 349.12)	100
Bees	Intercept	17.27 ± 0.40 (16.41, 18.08)	100
	Spores	1.04 ± 0.02 (0.99, 1.10)	100
	Time	1.13 ± 0.01 (1.10, 1.17)	100
	Brood	1.25 ± 0.01 (1.21, 1.29)	100
	Brood-Spores	0.20 ± 0.03 (0.13,0.29)	100
	Brood-Time	0.11 ± 0.02 (0.06, 0.15)	100
	Time-Spores	0.09 ± 0.03 (0.02,0.166)	99.7
Brood	Intercept	88.11 ± 17.36 (58.69, 127.88)	100
	Symptoms	1.30 ± 0.10 (1.10, 1.59)	100
	Time	0.52 ± 0.03 (0.44, 0.61)	100
	Bees	1.89 ± 0.15 (1.60, 2.29)	100
	Bees-Symptoms	0.58 ± 0.19 (0.16, 1.02)	99.9
	Bee-Time	1.37 ± 0.16 (0.97, 1.71)	100
	Symptoms-Time	0.78 ± 0.12 (0.53, 1.07)	100

Show are mean ± standard deviation (with 97% credibility intervals) of the main effects and the effect probability. Posteriors are weighted based on the four selected models (except for brood as response variable, see Table 1 and text). Italic rows specify the importance of one predictor in relation to another (posterior distribution of one parameter minus the other). We also show posteriors for specific values (Spores/Symptoms = 0; Symptoms = 1; see text for further explanations)

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