Fig. 2

Spore counts depending on clinical symptoms, time of the season, and number of bees within the colony. Shown are median (with 97, 89, and 67% credible intervals) posterior distributions along the full range of observed AFB scores, but only until a maximum of 3000 Spores (see Additional file 2: Figure S4 for whole range of observed spore counts). The remaining continuous predictors are held approximately at their mean (Bees: 9.2; Time: 48.4), their 1st quantile (Bees: 6.0; Time: 21), and their 3rd quantile (Bees: 12.0; Time: 79)