Fig. 3

Survival probability and partial dependence plots for egg survival. a The survival probability of individual Galerucella sagittariae eggs in the dry area (solid—light blue), intermediate area (large dashed—bright blue) and wet area (small dashed—dark blue). The shaded areas give the 95% confidence intervals. All other plots give the partial dependence of all individual variables while averaging out over all variables. The dark green line corresponds to a lowess smoothed line representing the partial dependence of b host plant height; c number of eggs; d vegetation height; e nitrogen; f phosphorus; g host plant density; h carbon and i leaf moisture content on egg survival. The grey dashed lines indicate a smoothed ± two standard errors and the light green dots represent 25 of those partial values used to fit the lowess function. The small tick marks represent all values included in the random survival forest analysis