Conserved community structure and simultaneous divergence events in the fig wasps associated with Ficus benjamina in Australia and China

Table 3 PyMsBayes evaluation of temporal clustering of divergence events according to various combinations of ecological guilds of intercontinental species pairs

Divergence model	Two divergence events			Four divergence events			Six divergence events
Divergence model	Posterior probability	Prior probability	Bayes factor	Posterior probability	Prior probability	Bayes factor	Posterior probability	Prior probability	Bayes factor
All taxa
All synchronised	0.696	0.422	3.142**	0.382	0.081	6.978**	0.164	0.011	18.381**
Small > large	0	0.00072	0	0	0.00048	0	0	→0	→0
Gallers > parasitoids	0	0.00024	0	0.002	→0	→0	0.001	→0	→0
Small wasps
All synchronised	0.719	0.475	2.828	0.411	0.115	5.395	0.185	0.021	10.400*
Gallers > parasitoids	0.011	0.008	1.437	0.013	0.005	2.875	0.004	0.0029	1.390
Pollinators and small parasitoids
Pollinators = parasitoids	0.733	0.531	2.420	0.424	0.157	3.945	0.205	0.030	8.474
Pollinators > parasitoids	0.043	0.0317	1.372	0.062	0.0312	2.052	0.032	0.011	3.097
Large wasps
All synchronised	0.814	0.582	3.138*	0.554	0.211	4.646*	0.303	0.0576	7.113*
Gallers > parasitoids	0.02	0.051	0.381	0.055	0.071	0.767	0.089	0.0466	2.000

Data are shown for three separate runs with priors set according to two, four and six divergence events. Bayes factors (BF) in italics represent favoured model. Asterisk indicates positive evidence (i.e. 2log_e(BF) is between 2–5) for favoured model [45]. Two asterisks indicate very strong evidence (NB where posterior probability = 0, support calculation effectively becomes 2log_e(∞)). Pairwise comparison were made between all scenarios under each sub-heading (in italics). →0 indicates tending to zero

ISSN: 1472-6785