Fig. 3

Multistate mark-recapture model for survival and adult group size in Molossus molossus. Survival estimates Ф for group size categories (small, medium and large) and transition probabilities ѱ between these categories are depicted. For example, the survival probability (from month t to t + 1) in a small group is 0.93 (95 % confidence interval 0.85–0.97), and the probability that a small group will transition to a large group (from month t to t + 1) is 0.12. These parameters were estimated with the multistate mark recapture model with group size including initial state of group size IS[gs] and detection probability P[.] in the model IS[gs]. Ф[gs]. ѱ[gs]. P[.]