Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long-term survival trends in southern elephant seals

BMC Ecology

Table 4 Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability as a function of environmental stochasticity

Model	ΔQAIC_c	wQAIC_c	k
High density (1951–1964)
ϕ(age-pupt/pup**t) p(t)	0.000	0.804	35
ϕ(age-mothert/mother**t) p(t)	2.830	0.195	34
ϕ(age-t/t) p(t)	16.950	<0.001	30
ϕ(age-pup*t/t) p(t)	24.810	<0.001	34
ϕ (age-mother*t/t) p(t)	24.820	<0.001	34
Low density (1993–1999)
ϕ (age-mothert/mother**t)p(t)	0.000	0.767	24
ϕ (mother*t)p(t)	2.380	0.233	18
ϕ (age-pupt/pup**t)p(t)	17.060	<0.001	22
ϕ (age-t/t)p(t)	32.800	<0.001	17
ϕ (age-pup*t/t)p(t)	40.820	<0.001	21

Effects of age (age-juvenile/adult), time (t), and environmental conditions represented by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during the newly weaned seal's foraging period (Jan-Oct) (pup), and during a mother's pre-partum foraging period (Jan-Oct of the previous year) (mother) on the probability of survival (ϕ) of southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (w QAIC_c), the relative change in AIC_cscore (ΔQAIC_c), and number of parameters (k) based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.3861.

ISSN: 1472-6785