Figure 2

Dynamics predicted by non-linear SETAR model and linear model. Predicted dynamics were calculated from the full models in Table 1 using one seed density estimates from 1960 and the observed climate and pack time series (one step ahead simulations). (a). Dynamics predicted by SETAR model with winter snow accumulation, SW _t , as a covariate. (b). Dynamics predicted by linear model with the number of packs, PA _t-i , and the Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomaly, T _t , as covariates. (c). Predicted versus observed values for the non-linear model. (d). Predicted versus observed values for the linear model.