Skip to main content

Table 1 Probability values for low (first value) and high rainfall years (second value) for climate change scenarios: increase in precipitation (1); decrease in precipitation (2); increase in inter-annual variation of precipitation (3); increase in temporal auto-correlation of precipitation (4) with 'good' phase (4a) and 'poor' phase (4b). Columns indicate 20%, 60% and 100% variation in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall years, respectively, as compared to the standard scenario (P low = 0.15, P average = 0.72, P high = 0.13).

From: Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna

Scenarios / Variation   20 % 60 % 100 %
(1) P low 0.150 0.150 0.150
  P high 0.156 0.208 0.260
(2) P low 0.180 0.240 0.300
  P high 0.130 0.130 0.130
(3) P low 0.180 0.240 0.300
  P high 0.156 0.208 0.260
(4a) 'good' phase P low 0.120 0.060 0.000
  P high 0.156 0.208 0.260
(4b) 'poor' phase P low 0.180 0.240 0.300
  P high 0.104 0.052 0.000