Table 1 Probability values for low (first value) and high rainfall years (second value) for climate change scenarios: increase in precipitation (1); decrease in precipitation (2); increase in inter-annual variation of precipitation (3); increase in temporal auto-correlation of precipitation (4) with 'good' phase (4a) and 'poor' phase (4b). Columns indicate 20%, 60% and 100% variation in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall years, respectively, as compared to the standard scenario (P low = 0.15, P average = 0.72, P high = 0.13).
From: Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna
Scenarios / Variation | 20 % | 60 % | 100 % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | P low | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.150 |
P high | 0.156 | 0.208 | 0.260 | |
(2) | P low | 0.180 | 0.240 | 0.300 |
P high | 0.130 | 0.130 | 0.130 | |
(3) | P low | 0.180 | 0.240 | 0.300 |
P high | 0.156 | 0.208 | 0.260 | |
(4a) 'good' phase | P low | 0.120 | 0.060 | 0.000 |
P high | 0.156 | 0.208 | 0.260 | |
(4b) 'poor' phase | P low | 0.180 | 0.240 | 0.300 |
P high | 0.104 | 0.052 | 0.000 |