Typical SGM time series of the standard scenario with 500 annual time steps. Population trend is given as shrub density with simple linear regression y = 0.0032x + 15.73. Mean slope of population trend for 100 simulation runs was z = 0.000049x + 13.41 with standard deviation of +/-0.017. Further model output from top to bottom: number of high (black) and low rainfall (grey) years per decade, fire occurrence (indicated as a black bar), density of fire- and drought-killed shrubs and density of recruits. Decades with frequent high rainfall years are indicated by frequent fires and increased fire mortality. Decades with exceptionally low rainfall show low fire frequency and increased drought mortality. Peaks of recruitment occur mostly in years with high rainfall and absence of fire.