Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long-term survival trends in southern elephant seals

BMC Ecology

Table 5 Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability as a function of population density

Model	ΔQAIC_c	wQAIC_c	k
High density (1951–1964)
ϕ(age-density/t) p(t)	0.000	0.894	14
ϕ(age-t/t) p(t)	4.270	0.106	18
ϕ(t) p(t)	14.860	0.001	13
ϕ(age-dlag/t) p(t)	16.960	<0.001	16
ϕ(age-density/density) p(t)	21.410	<0.001	14
Low density (1993–1999)
ϕ(age-density/t) p(t)	0.000	0.399	10
ϕ(age-t/t) p(t)	0.720	0.278	13
ϕ(age-dlag/t) p(t)	0.960	0.246	10
ϕ(age-density/density) p(t)	3.310	0.076	10
ϕ(age-dlag/dlag) p(t)	17.940	<0.001	10

Effects of age (age-juvenile/adult), time (t), density of breeding females (density), and density of breeding females lagged by one year (dlag) on the probability of survival (ϕ) in southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (w QAIC_c), the relative change in AIC_cscore (ΔQAIC_c), and number of parameters (k), based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.7122.

ISSN: 1472-6785