Figure 3

Apparent survival probability of yearling southern elephant seals versus the Southern Oscillation Index and population size. Model-averaged, time-variant estimates of mean apparent survival (ϕ) for yearling southern elephant seals at Macquarie Island plotted as a function of (A) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly over the mother's previous foraging trip (January to October) between 1950 and 2001 (high positive values of the SOI anomaly indicate El Niño conditions; high negative values indicate La Niña conditions), and (B) the number of breeding females counted on the isthmus of Macquarie Island that year.